HowToDecide

How to decide (By Annie Duke)

  • Average overall. Learned something, but much of it was at too low of a level.
  • Only two things determine how your life turns out; luck and the quality of your decisions (You only have control over one of these) Stoicism
  • Unlikely to have a class on decision making until college or beyond. ShouldTeachKids
  • We dont even have a common language for talking about decision making.
  • Using your "gut" to decide: Cant know whether you've "used" it properly, all you can see is the output.
  • Where not good at recognizing when sacrificing quality in decision making isn't a big deal. Rationality
    • "Knowing when the hammer is good enough is a meta skill worth developing"
    • "Knowing when its okay to save time is part of a good decision process"
  • The quality of the outcome casts a shadow over our ability to see the quality of the decision. Mental Models
  • Making it a habit of asking yourself "If I where wrong, why would that be?" Mental Models Rationality Checklists helps to approach your own beliefs with more skepticism (Reduce systematic uncertainty)
  • The happiness test: Will the outcome of your decision have any effect on happiness in a year? a month ? a year? Mental Models Rationality Checklists If no, then you can speed up the decision with little cost.
  • "Free roll" decisions with asymmetry between upside and downside b/c potential losses are insignificant. Mental Models Rationality Checklists
  • When a decision is hard that means its easy. The closeness of the options is what slowing you down. Actually this is a signal that you can go fast Mental Models Rationality Checklists
  • The lower the cost to quit, the faster you can go. Easier to unwind and choose something else. (Should think more in advance about option to quit) Mental Models Rationality Checklists
  • Decision stacking: Can you make lower impact, easier to quit decisions that will teach you something before the high-impact one-way decision (Rent before buy) Mental Models Rationality Checklists
  • "He who knows only his own side of the case, knows little of that" - John Stuart Mill Mental Models Rationality

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