TheButton

The Button (William Perry and Tom Collina)

  • Very good / Learned a lot/ lot of overlap with previous Perry book / Bit repetitive
  • Under current US policy presidents have authority to launch nukes 1st and is not limited to retaliation! (Can be launched with in mins)
  • Once launched cannot be recalled.
  • The threat of Russia launching attack on US is vanishingly small, smaller than the risk that we might start war by mistake => current nuclear policy is very dangerous. (ESP given that it is susceptible to cyber attack))
  • Short of mutiny, no one can stop president launching nukes for whatever reason.
  • Only 25% of public knows president has sole authority
  • Putting this much power in the hand of one person goes against everything the constitution stands for. Congress has sole power to declare war. Lincoln: "No one man should hold the power to take us to war"
  • Risks of having nukes ready to launch on minutes notice outweigh any perceived benefits. System is unconstitutional, dangerous, outdated and unnecessary.
  • Original rationale of sole authority nothing to do with using them quickly. Everything to do with guarding against over-zealous generals.
  • Fixed location of ICBMs are known, unlike subs. Only way for ICBMs to survive 1st strike form Russia is if fired on warning. (Extremely dangerous b/c we know warning system fallible)
  • Climate science => Full scale nuclear attach suicidal even if no retaliation.
  • Risk of surprise attack << Risk of stumbling into war
  • 1982 Soviets declared for 1st time that would not use nukes first (US has never said as much…)
  • A nuclear war by mistake would be just as deadly as one by intent.
  • Nixon ordered a tactical nuclear strike on North Korea after they downed a spy plane. Kissinger intervened and settled the situation down until NIXON WAS SOBER.
  • Stuxnet: First attack of a major nature which was used to cause serious physical damage.
  • Cyber threats, which did not exist when the systems were built, dramatically increase the danger of accidental nuclear war.
  • If we cannot be confident that systems will work under attack (eg: if systems taken offline by cyber attack) what does this say about the viability of nuclear deterrence ?
  • If no sane president would even order the 1st use of the bomb, then why does US policy allow 1st use ? It should not.
  • US plans to spend 2 trillion over next 30 years on nukes.
  • ICBMs Russia knows where they are, and would knock them out 1st. Bombers and subs protect and act as a deterrence, not ICBMs.
  • US doesn't not need ICBMs and should phase them out without replacement. Would save $ 150B would take "missile states" out of cross-hairs and would remove and accidental threat.
  • The triad (ICBMs/subs/ bombers) emerged mainly from inter-service rivalry.
  • Nukes are the only immediate existential threat to the US.
  • Combined Test Ban. still in limbo. US not test nuke since 92. but the treaty does not come into force until the US ratifies. US led the world to negotiate the treaty, but cannot get organized enough to sign it.

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