TB: More From Less (McAfee)

Core Thesis

Advanced economies have turned the corner on dematerialization: they are getting more output from fewer physical inputs. This did not require radical change — it came from getting much better at existing processes, driven by technological progress, capitalism, public awareness, and responsive government. The common belief that economic growth must consume ever more resources is wrong about the future (though Malthus was broadly correct about the past).

Key Takeaways

Dematerialization

An advanced economy can decouple economic growth from increasing volumes of material consumed.
CRIB strategies — consume less, recycle, impose limits, go back to the land — have NOT been important contributors. Technology and market prices drove the change.
The strangest aspect: no radical changes were needed. We just got a lot better at things we were already doing.
Natural gas at 50% less carbon per kWh than coal replaced coal when fracking made it cheap — a market outcome, not a mandate.

Malthus and doomsday forecasts

While Malthus was badly wrong about the future, he was broadly correct about the past. Before the Industrial Revolution, his dynamics held.
The steam engine, unveiled 22 years before Malthus published his Essay, assured his predictions would rank among the worst ever made.
Life magazine (1970): "Scientists predict by the 1980s city dwellers will need gas masks." Nobel laureate George Wald (1970): "Civilization will end within 15-30 years."
Rare earths are not actually rare — just difficult to extract.

Price signals and scarcity

Hayek: fluctuating prices for aluminum and wheat are signals about scarcity and abundance.
Resource scarcity isn't something we need to worry about: Earth is finite, but very, very big.
Principle 1 of Econ 101: markets should be left alone; Principle 2: governments must intervene for negative externalities. Both remain true.

Factory farming vs. homesteaders

To get the same harvest, homesteaders use more land, water, and fertilizer than "factory farms." Efficiency has environmental benefits.

Mental Models

Incentives Matter — market price signals (not mandates) drove dematerialization; prices encode scarcity
Second-Order Thinking — the second-order effect of efficiency gains was reduced resource use, not increased as Jevons predicted in heavy industry