TB: Free Roll
Definition
A decision with strong asymmetry between upside and downside, where the potential losses are insignificant relative to the potential gains. A free roll is worth taking essentially regardless of the probability of success, because the downside cost approaches zero.
Why it matters
Most decision frameworks implicitly assume symmetric stakes. Recognizing a free roll unlocks a different mode of reasoning: stop estimating probabilities and just act. The failure to take free rolls is a common and costly error — people apply full decision-making overhead to situations that warrant none.
Examples from reading
No reading examples yet — will populate as books are ingested.