TB: Inversion

Instead of asking "how do I succeed?", ask "what would guarantee failure, and how do I avoid it?" Reframe the problem by working backwards from the undesired outcome. Avoiding stupidity is often easier and more reliable than seeking brilliance.

Forward thinking about success is psychologically appealing but systematically incomplete — it neglects the failure modes. Inversion forces you to enumerate what can go wrong, which is a more tractable problem. The method: (1) identify the problem, (2) define the objective, (3) identify forces supporting change, (4) identify forces impeding change, (5) add forces from (3) and remove forces in (4). Most people stop at (3).

• Inversion (source note): Index funds as inversion — avoid guaranteed losses (fees, poor stock picks) rather than chase maximum gains. Henry Ford bought scrapped Ford cars to find which parts didn't fail, so those could be made cheaper.
• "Invert, always invert" — Jacobi

• Inversion ← this page
• Second-Order Thinking
• Hard Decisions Are Easy
• Long Chains of Complex Reasoning Are Brittle